Euro 2008 Qualifier Update! ![]()
After taking a break since last November, the qualifiers for Euro 2008 revved up again in the last week of March before they pick up again in June. It was an eventful couple of matchdays, to be sure, as the complexion of several group races changed in a four-day span. Following is a quick overview of where each of the groups sits before action resumes again in June.
GROUP A... What appeared to be a foregone conclusion and group win for Portugal has turned into a real dogfight. Although Cristiano Ronaldo (left) and the Portuguese have a game in hand over group leader Poland, they’re still 5 points behind the Poles and sitting level with surprising Serbia and Finland. And leapfrogging Poland might not be easy unless Portugal gets some help, because a 2-1 loss last November in Chorzow, thanks to a pair of Eizebiusz Smolarek goals, has put the Portuguese at a disadvantage. The rematch comes September 8 in Portugal.
The Portuguese also missed a chance at max points on March 28 when Serbia fought back for a 1-1 daw. We’re not sure the Serbs are going to be able to recover from their March 24 loss to Kazakhstan, however, one that immediately put the well-traveled Spanish coach Javier Clemente in hot water.
A major disappointment has been Belgium, well off the pace and literally out of the running, and whipped 4-0 by a rampant Portugal (led by a Cristiano Ronaldo brace) March 24. We like Poland’s chances, with Portugal now perhaps having to go the playoff route to qualify.
GROUP B... This is one of those groups where the complexion of things changed in late March. In particular, Italy was faced with a literal must-win at Bari against Scotland, now coached by Alex McLeish, March 28. And with their backs against the wall, the azzuri responded with a 2-0 win thanks to a Luca Toni brace (left). The mettlesome performance of the Scots, however, has been the interesting development in this group that also contains three of the final eight (Italy, plus France and Ukraine) from last year’s World Cup. Italy had put itself in a box by drawing vs. Lithuania and losing at Stade de France last September, placing new manager Roberto Donadoni in the middle of a media hurricane at home.
We would still keep or eyes on France, which is looking for a new identity as it proceeds into the post-Zidane age. For the time being, holdover weapons such as Nicolas Anelka (who scored the only goal in the March 24 win over Lithuania) might have to be relied upon more than coach Raymond Domenech would like, although the emergence of a potential new star in young Lyon striker Karim Benzema (who scored the only goal in a recent friendly win over Austria) might prove the eventual key.
GROUP C... Already, Group C has evolved into a two-team race between Turkey and Euro 2004 holder Greece, still coached by the same Otto Rehhagel who authored that magic in Portugal three summers ago. But Greece has not been quite the same team since and was undressed by the Turks March 24 in Athens, 4-1. Look for this group to eventually be decided in the rematch October 17, with the winner likely advancing as group top dog, the loser likely thrown into the playoff mix.
GROUP D... Another group that has turned out a bit tougher than originally anticipated, thanks mainly to Ireland’s resurgence. And it really appears to be a 3-team race between Eire, the Czech Republic, and favored Germany, with all three now on 13 points. Keep in mind, however, that the Germans have a game in hand on the Czechs and two in hand vs. Ireland, so Joakim Loew’s troops look in good shape, even more so after avoiding a banana peel vs. the Czechs March 24, prevailing 2-1 on the road thanks to goals from Bastian Schweinsteiger and Kevin Kuranyi, canceling out a late Milan Baros strike.
Ireland manager Steve Staunton might have been in some job danger heading into the late March games, but back-to-back 1-0 wins over Wales and Slovakia have given him a stay of execution. The Czechs could be vulnerable as they revamp their squad, and the September 12 rematch (Ireland tied the Czechs 1-1 in the first meeting) could prove the deciding match to see which team gets a crack at the playoff spot. We expect Germany, with a nice blend of veterans (led by Michael Ballack) and youth (Lukas Podolski, Schweinsteiger & Co.) to win the group, although it still has to travel to Ireland for a tricky date October 13.
GROUP E... Could England be in trouble? Coach Steve McClaren (right) is certainly hearing the catcalls after another lackluster performance March 24 in Tel Aviv, a numbing 0-0 draw vs. Israel. Critics would really have had a field day with McClaren had the English not bounced back to beat scrappy but outmanned Andorra four nights later, 3-0, with Steven Gerrard the catalyst.
McClaren is an easy target, although we suspect the English talent base is simply not as overwhelming as many believe. Without Cristiano Ronaldo to play off of as he does with Man United, Wayne Rooney has found trouble creating space up front for the national side, and really hasn’t done much in an England shirt since Euro 2004. Meanwhile, McClaren has been experimenting with Gerrard away from his normal midfield pilot’s role, and with Rooney misfiring and Michael Owen temporarily out of the frame as he recovers from knee surgery, scoring options are limited. And besides its games vs. minnow Andorra, England under McClaren have not looked convincing. Not the best of days for the English.
We still say England makes it through, somehow, although we are not sure it will be as group winners. Croatia looks ornery and is setting the pace at 13 points, 2 ahead of Israel, Russia, and England, with a game in hand over Israel and Russia. Should Croatia get max points from June battles vs. Estonia and Russia, we think they’ll win the group, an England will likely have to scrap for a playoff spot.
GROUP F... Another group where March fixtures changed the look of things. It was a particularly important pair of games for Spain, which had dug itself a big hole with losses to both Sweden and Northern Ireland and looked to be the heavyweight side in the most trouble in all of the qualifiers. It needed home wins over Denmark and Iceland to get back on course, and it got them, thanks to old pro Fernando Morientes’ deft scoring touch vs. the Danes, then Andres Iniesta (left) saving the night against the Ice men with his 81st-minute goal in a deluge at the Son Moix. Iceland, massing its defense and letting its excellent GK Arne Gautur Arason fluster the Spaniards, looked capable of a forcing a nil-nil until Iniesta’s heroics, which also probably gives a lifeline to embattled veteran coach Luis Aragones.
Every side has lost already in group play, including the Swedes, who bit the dust 2-1 against Northern Ireland at Windsor Park March 28, Leeds’ David Healy netting a brace for the winners. The Danes also figure to have something to say in this group before all is complete. Still all to play for here, but with rematches at home vs. both Northern Ireland and the Swedes, and getting back on track in late March, we like Spain’s chances to end up on top.
GROUP G... It’s not coming easily for Holland in this workmanlike group, especially with goals hard to come by for the Dutch. Only 8 of them in 6 qualifiers to date, although it has been enough to put Marco van Basten’s (left) side clearly on top after the March matches. The Dutch have played one more game than everyone else in the group, but will welcome a fixture quirk that has them off until August. At that time, explosive wing Arjen Robben should be sufficiently recovered from a knee injury that has prematurely ended his campaign at Chelsea, but this remains a releatively green Dutch side, as van Basten has shown little inclination to recall some of the vets like Ruud van Nistelrooy and Edgar Davids and others who have been fixtures in Dutch teams for the last decade.
Romania figures to chase the Dutch all of the way, and was able to quell van Basten’s troops in a 0-0 draw March 24 at Rotterdam. The Romanians appear to have more attacking options than the Bulgarians, now coached by the irascible Hristo Stoichkov. Stoichkov, to no one’s surprise, has been stirring up the pot at home, and needed a vote of confidence from the Bulgarian FA after an ugly 0-0 draw vs. dour Albania March 28.
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