The big game is now only days away, and the Super Bowl betting line has changed slightly as many people believe in the dominance of Peyton Manning. The Indianapolis Colts are favoured by just under a touchdown in many circles over the New Orleans Saints. A win would give the Colts their second championship in four years.

A newly disclosed injury for the Colts, however, may tip the balance of odds a bit more towards the Saints,and may push more people to pick Drew Brees and company for the upset.

Right end Dwight Freeney has an ankle injury and is questionable for the big game. Most players and coaches are sure he will play. Freeney himself has said he is still in pain, but hopes to go. No one knows for sure though, just how effective the all-pro defensive end will be.

Most agree that second to Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney is the most important player and his talents are needed to beat the Saints. The few teams that have beat New Orleans, including the Dallas Cowboys, have slowed down the Saints explosive offense with immense pressure by their defensive front four. This strategy leaves seven men in coverage, allowing the linebackers and defensive backs to better cover all the weapons the Saints showcase on offense. By sending an extra man to blitz and pressure Brees, a passing option opens up, and the Saints gunslinger rarely misses when given an opportunity. Colston, Meachem, Henderson, Bush, and Thomas can all catch quick passes and make big plays. 

With Freeney in the line up, the Colts can pressure Brees with four and the rest can drop back in coverage. Without him, though, Indianapolis will be forced to send an extra man or risk giving Brees all sorts of time to work with. In games Freeney has been out of the lineup, the Colts have a winning record. The Saints, however, are perfectly equipped to use that weakness to their advantage.

Most likely Freeney will be in, however, he won’t be playing at full speed and full strength. The injury is to his right ankle, and playing on the right side, he uses that leg to plant and push off. With him not at his normal Pro Bowl caliber self, the Saints will not have to leave an extra player in the backfield to double-team Freeney, and thus a back will be free to break up field. The injury to Freeney has certainly given a much needed advantage to the Saints, but will it be enough to win?

Betting Line
Colts by 5 1/2

The injury should be enough to stop the Saints Colts spread from moving anymore towards Indy, and may even trend towards New Orleans a half point. However it is Dwight Freeney who is injured, not Peyton Manning. So the Saints still have to find an answer for the greatest quarterback in the league playing at the top of his game. The Colts have the offensive explosion, the leadership, and the experience to find a way to win the game. If they have the ball in the last few minutes down by a score or tied, Manning and company will prevail. It’s the last football game for some time, so maximize your winnings by checking out some betting tips and watching the props. With Manning and Brees at the helm, the last NFL game of the year should prove to be a high scoring and thrilling bout.

PICK: Saints