Rashad Evans’ long road back to a light heavyweight title shot reaches the doorstep of Phil Davis in a little more than 24 hours.

In FOX’s second showing of UFC, Rashad Evans and the undefeated Phil Davis headline the main card for a light heavyweight bout Saturday in Chicago. This matchup will pit two fighters against each other who base their attacks off wrestling, both having competed as Division I wrestlers.

Saturday, January 28 – 10:30 p.m. ET
United Center – Chicago, IL
Rashad Evans (21-1-1) vs. Phil Davis (9-0-0)
Light Heavyweight Bout
Line: Evans -225, Davis +175

Although both fighters weigh an identical 205 pounds, Davis has the height advantage, standing at 6-foot-2 while Evans is just 5-foot-11. Additionally, his reach is four inches longer than Evans’ at 79 inches. Evans, however, brings a much stronger pedigree to this fight. In 2008, he knocked out Forrest Griffin to become the light heavyweight champion, only to lose it in a knockout his next time out to Lyoto Machida. Davis has cruised to his undefeated record, and in his last match, he won in a unanimous decision over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. This is the same Nogueira, who in his last fight defeated Tito Ortiz, the most recent fighter Evans conquered. Ultimately, this is shaping up to be an incredibly exciting match between two of the weight class’s best fighters. But, in a clash between two takedown specialists, size should be a major factor. Although it’s a small sample size, nobody has been able to take down Davis in his career with a 100% avoidance rate. Play on DAVIS as an underdog to take what should be a thrilling bout.

Since Evans’ loss to Machida, he has bounced back to defeat top fighters in the light heavyweight class, proving he is still among the best. He beat both Thiago Silva and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson by unanimous decisions, and most recently knocked out Ortiz. Evans’ wrestling techniques naturally focus his attack on takedowns (74%) with the other 26% coming as strikes. The former Michigan State Spartan will need to be clever with his grappling to take down Davis, who is larger and has proven to be an elite defender. While “Suga” Evans may be slightly more talented, he is not the play as the chalk in this fight.

Davis, like Evans, is a wrestler, having competed at Penn State. Although both fighters competed in the Big Ten, they never faced one another since Evans (32) is five years older than the 27-year-old Davis. “Mr. Wonderful” Davis is less dependent on takedowns (42%) than Evans however, also mixing in strikes (32%) and submissions (26%). The defining trait of Davis has been how he defends so excellently against his opponents. Beyond his unblemished takedown defense, he also defends 81% of incoming strikes, a very high rate. It is tough to guarantee a Davis win given that Nogueira was his only win over a highly-respected opponent, but with the odds in his favor, he is certainly the play in this headline fight.

Rashad Evans (205) vs. Phil Davis (205)
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George Roop (145) vs. Cub Swanson (145)
Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira (144) vs. Eric Wisely (145)
Shane Roller (156) vs. Michael Johnson (156)
Joey Beltran (228) vs. Lavar Johnson (252)
Chris Camozzi (185) vs. Dustin Jacoby (185)